Vietnam’s bamboo diplomacy in the tailwinds, headwinds and crosswinds

Once seen as a beneficiary of the U.S.–China trade war, Hanoi now confronts steep U.S. tariffs announced on “Liberation Day” while working to sustain growth and balance relations with major powers.

In this article, AVPI Fellow Dr Huong Le Thu explains the foundations of bamboo diplomacy, which is flexibility, resilience, and firm roots while interpreting Vietnam’s strategic choices as it navigates intensifying geo-economic and geo-political pressures.

Key takeaways

• New U.S. tariffs of up to 46% on Vietnamese exports (with some lines negotiated down to 20%, and 40% on goods deemed transshipped from China) pose real risks for an export-led economy where trade exceeds 200% of GDP and the U.S. is the largest export destination worth about 27% of GDP.
• Vietnam acted first among affected economies, quickly securing a phone call with President Trump. While outcomes fell short of preferences, Hanoi’s speed and pragmatism earned recognition from partners.
• Vietnam is broadening ties with Japan, Australia, South Korea, India, the EU and others, reflected in the rapid growth of Comprehensive Strategic Partnerships. High-level visits to Hanoi signal recognition of its rising strategic weight.
• Vietnam has recently added Singapore, Indonesia and New Zealand to its Comprehensive Strategic Partnerships and accelerated ties with the Republic of Korea, a top investor crucial to Vietnam’s semiconductor ambitions after Secretary General To Lam’s visit.
• Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong’s visit underscored practical avenues for Vietnam and Australia to work together amid turbulence.
• The more volatile the external environment, the greater the premium on resilience bamboo’s signature quality guiding Vietnam’s next moves.